• 惠譽調整株洲城發的評級展望至“穩定”,確認其評級為‘BBB-’
  • 信息來源:     發布時間:2019-10-23 17:31:24    閱讀量:
  • 23 Oct 2019 10:45 AM
    Fitch Ratings - Hong Kong - 09-Oct-2019 本文章英文原文最初于2019年10月9日發布于:
    https://www.fitchratings.com/site/pr/10092156
    Fitch Revises Outlook on Zhuzhou City Construction to Stable; Affirms at 'BBB-'
            惠譽評級已將株洲市城市建設發展集團有限公司(株洲城發)的評級展望從“負面”調整為“穩定”。惠譽同時確認株洲城發的長期外幣和本幣發行人違約評級為‘BBB-’。
            本次評級展望調整是基于,惠譽根據其于2019年9月發布的修改后《全球地方政府和地區政府評級標準》上調了對株洲市政府向株洲城發提供支持的預期。
            株洲城發在株洲市從事城市基礎設施建設并提供公用事業和交通服務。該公司由株洲市人民政府國有資產監督管理委員會(株洲市國資委)全資擁有。
            惠譽同時確認株洲城發票息率2.98%的3億美元高級無抵押債券及票息率5.70%的4億美元高級無抵押債券的評級為‘BBB-’。上述債券由株洲城發直接發行,構成該公司的直接、無條件、無抵押債務,與該公司所有其他債務處于同等受償順序。
    關鍵評級驅動因素
            法律地位及政府持股和控制程度為“很強”:株洲城發最終由株洲市政府擁有,其運營和投融資活動完全受政府管控,因此其業務發展方向緊密跟隨株洲市的城市發展藍圖;其高管也由政府任命。
            政府以往支持和預期支持力度為“強”:株洲市政府一直以注資、補助、補貼和地方政府債務置換的方式向株洲城發提供支持。2015年至2018年間株洲城發每年獲得補貼3億到4億元人民幣,約其占年營業額的10%。2018年該公司有31.51億元人民幣的債務被置換成政府債務。此外,2018年末該公司源自株洲市政府下屬各部門的應收賬款逾75億元人民幣,約占其總資產的10%。鑒于株洲城發的主要業務對株洲市的發展和日常運作至關重要,惠譽預計該公司將繼續獲得政府大力支持。
            違約帶來的社會政治影響為“中等”:株洲城發的主要業務為公用基礎設施建設、公共交通及供水相關業務。這些業務活動可以由政府暫時接管,因此株洲城發若陷入財務困境不太可能會導致其業務立即中斷。此外,株洲市其他政府相關企業的存在意味著,株洲城發是有可能會被逐漸取代的。但是,鑒于株洲城發經營管理上述業務的經驗,該公司若被取代將可能令其業務受到中等程度的擾亂。
            違約帶來的融資影響為“很強”:從資產和營業額規模來看,株洲城發是株洲市最大的國有企業之一;該公司也是株洲市從事城市基礎設施開發的重要國企,擁有境內外債券市場融資渠道。如果株洲城發陷入財務困境,可能會對株洲市政府及該市其他政府相關企業的融資能力和融資成本產生嚴重影響。
            獨立信用狀況為‘b’:株洲城發的獨立信用狀況受到其業務公共服務性質的制約。鑒于株洲城發缺乏公共服務領域的定價權(盡管在當地占據壟斷地位)且依賴政府補貼,惠譽評定該公司的營收穩定性為“較弱”。鑒于已識別的成本動因及該公司與現有供應商之間已建立的關系,惠譽評定該公司的經營風險為“中等”,但該公司將成本增加轉嫁給客戶的能力有限抵消了上述優勢。鑒于株洲城發的調整后凈債務與EBITDA之比約為30倍且預計該指標短期內不會下降,惠譽評定該公司的財務狀況為“較弱”,但預計政府持續提供的財政支持將對該公司疲弱的獨立信用狀況起到緩解作用。
    評級敏感性
            如果惠譽關于株洲市政府向株洲城發提供補貼、補助或國家政策法規允許的其他合規資源的能力的看法發生變化,則惠譽可能會調整該公司的評級。
            如果惠譽上調對株洲市政府支持株洲城發的力度或意愿的評估結果,包括上調對政府以往支持力度及該公司若違約將帶來的社會政治影響及/或融資影響的評估結果,則惠譽可能會對該公司采取正面評級行動。反之,如果惠譽大幅下調對該公司若違約將帶來的社會政治影響和融資影響的評估結果,或下調對政府以往支持力度的評估結果,或政府稀釋對該公司的持股,則惠譽可能會下調該公司的評級。
            株洲城發獨立信用狀況或流動性狀況的改善或惡化也會影響其評級。
            株洲城發的發行人違約評級若發生任何變化將導致其債券的評級發生相似幅度的變化。
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